(Horse; Pre-race System #....early odds)
I Want Revenge- 15.5
Pioneerof the Nile- 15.5
Desert Party- 15
Dunkirk- 14.3
West Side Bernie- 12.8
Chocolate Candy- 12.5
Friesan Fire- 12.1
General Quarters- 11.4
Regal Ransom- 11
Musket Man- 10.8
Summer Bird- 10.8
Papa Clem- 10
Hold Me Back- 10
Mr. Hot Stuff- 9.4
Flying Private- 7.5
Nowhere to Hide- 7.4
Advice- 6.6
Mine that Bird- 6.5
Join in the Dance- 6
Atomic Rain- 5.2
I Want Revenge (15.5) has taken it to another level on the dirt. Pioneerof the Nile (15.5) was twice better than 'Revenge' over the California synthetic surfaces. Then Revenge went east and established himself as the Derby favorite. He is a much better horse on Saturday's dirt surface. If Pioneerof the Nile does like his rival, they may duke it out. Interesting that Pioneer's connections (Mott & Baffert are both no-joke) have never tried him on dirt even when he was based on the east coast with Mott. I'll take I Want Revenge because I've seen him dominate on dirt. Pioneer has trained brilliantly over Churchill's dirt.
Desert Party (15) has grown into his $2,100,000 purchase price when he went to Dubai this winter. He began to show even more when he routed. If he runs back to his North American 2008 form (doubtful), he'll be nowhere close. If he runs like he did in the desert, he's dangerous.
If Dunkirk (14.3) catches Quality Road in the March 28 Florida Derby, I'd estimate a number around 16.5. He had to do a lot that day, but he did have the lead in the stretch, until Quality Road fought back and Dunkirk threw it in. Either way, that was only his third race, and they've ALL BEEN impressive. Awfully dangerous. Preakness?
West Side Bernie (12.8) was 1 1/2 lengths behind I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial, and was 4-wide that day. However, 'Revenge' had much more trouble. His last three dirt races have been very respectable. Tremendous value in triples & superfectas.
I respect Joel Rosario and Russel Baze, but Mike Smith is as big of a big-time rider as it gets. He gets the call on Chocolate Candy (12.5), and may be the answer to his mount's wide journey troubles. If he's three wide (instead of five wide) in the Santa Anita Derby, maybe he beats tied-for-field-high Pioneerof the Nile that day. Same with December's Cash Call Futurity, closed like a car door that day while four wide. Beaten only by, you guessed it, Pioneer and I Want Revenge. In February I called Cali's 3-year-olds soft. Dead wrong.
Friesan Fire (12.1) has a huge shot. LOVED his Louisiana Derby. If he runs that way on Saturday he could win this. Plus Larry Jones rarely does any wrong, so I ignore the fact that no horse has won of this type of rest in however long its been.. Friesan Fire is your horse? You're live.
Pioneerof the Nile (outside) noses out I Want Revenge
(inside) at Hollywood Park in December. I Want Revenge
has a huge chance to get some on Saturday.
***CASUAL RACING FAN*** BECAUSE THERE ARE NO SERIOUS OUTLIERS, LOOK FOR SOME VALUE. THIS IS THE KENTUCKY DERBY, THERE ARE 20 STARTERS. TRAFFIC (AMONG MANY OTHER THINGS) IS ANNUALLY A HUGE PROBLEM IN THIS RACE.
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