KENTUCKY DERBY 5/2 $2,000,000

Race 11 Churchill KY Derby 1 1/4 miles
(Horse; Pre-race System #....early odds)

I Want Revenge- 15.5
Pioneerof the Nile- 15.5
Desert Party- 15
Dunkirk- 14.3
West Side Bernie- 12.8
Chocolate Candy- 12.5
Friesan Fire- 12.1
General Quarters- 11.4
Regal Ransom- 11
Musket Man- 10.8
Summer Bird- 10.8
Papa Clem- 10
Hold Me Back- 10
Mr. Hot Stuff- 9.4
Flying Private- 7.5
Nowhere to Hide- 7.4
Advice- 6.6
Mine that Bird- 6.5
Join in the Dance- 6
Atomic Rain- 5.2

I Want Revenge (15.5) has taken it to another level on the dirt. Pioneerof the Nile (15.5) was twice better than 'Revenge' over the California synthetic surfaces. Then Revenge went east and established himself as the Derby favorite. He is a much better horse on Saturday's dirt surface. If Pioneerof the Nile does like his rival, they may duke it out. Interesting that Pioneer's connections (Mott & Baffert are both no-joke) have never tried him on dirt even when he was based on the east coast with Mott. I'll take I Want Revenge because I've seen him dominate on dirt. Pioneer has trained brilliantly over Churchill's dirt.

Desert Party (15) has grown into his $2,100,000 purchase price when he went to Dubai this winter. He began to show even more when he routed. If he runs back to his North American 2008 form (doubtful), he'll be nowhere close. If he runs like he did in the desert, he's dangerous.

If Dunkirk (14.3) catches Quality Road in the March 28 Florida Derby, I'd estimate a number around 16.5. He had to do a lot that day, but he did have the lead in the stretch, until Quality Road fought back and Dunkirk threw it in. Either way, that was only his third race, and they've ALL BEEN impressive. Awfully dangerous. Preakness?

West Side Bernie (12.8) was 1 1/2 lengths behind I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial, and was 4-wide that day. However, 'Revenge' had much more trouble. His last three dirt races have been very respectable. Tremendous value in triples & superfectas.

I respect Joel Rosario and Russel Baze, but Mike Smith is as big of a big-time rider as it gets. He gets the call on Chocolate Candy (12.5), and may be the answer to his mount's wide journey troubles. If he's three wide (instead of five wide) in the Santa Anita Derby, maybe he beats tied-for-field-high Pioneerof the Nile that day. Same with December's Cash Call Futurity, closed like a car door that day while four wide. Beaten only by, you guessed it, Pioneer and I Want Revenge. In February I called Cali's 3-year-olds soft. Dead wrong.

Friesan Fire (12.1) has a huge shot. LOVED his Louisiana Derby. If he runs that way on Saturday he could win this. Plus Larry Jones rarely does any wrong, so I ignore the fact that no horse has won of this type of rest in however long its been.. Friesan Fire is your horse? You're live.



Pioneerof the Nile (outside) noses out I Want Revenge
(inside) at Hollywood Park in December. I Want Revenge
has a huge chance to get some on Saturday.



***CASUAL RACING FAN*** BECAUSE THERE ARE NO SERIOUS OUTLIERS, LOOK FOR SOME VALUE. THIS IS THE KENTUCKY DERBY, THERE ARE 20 STARTERS. TRAFFIC (AMONG MANY OTHER THINGS) IS ANNUALLY A HUGE PROBLEM IN THIS RACE.

CHURCHILL FRIDAY 5/1 Kentucky Oaks

Friday Race 11 1 $500,000 G1 KY Oaks
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Rachel Alexandra- 16.3
Justwhistledixie- 11.4
Be Fair- 8.1
Flying Spur-8
Nan- 7.5
Gabby's Golden Girl- 7.5
Tweeter- 3.5
Stone Legacy- 3.5

Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) has won four in

a row. She faces the best east 3YOF, Justwhistledixie

on Friday.

Last 10 Derby Winner's System Numbers

Over the last ten seasons there has been a trend among the Kentucky Derby champions. All of them had an 11 rating or higher coming into the Derby.

2008: Big Brown-15.3 (field-high)

2007: Street Sense-16.5 (high)

2006: Barbaro-14.1 (high)

2005: Giacomo-12.5

2004: Smarty Jones-16.6 (high)

2003: Funny Cide-13.9

2002: War Emblem-11.6

2001: Monarchos-12.8 (high)

2000: Fusaichi Pegasus-15.3 (high)

1999: Charismatic-11

Quality Road Out...Don't Forget About Him.

Quality Road's early Kentucky Derby number was a 17. That is due to change once the field is announced but wouldn't have strayed much from that number. For an early 3-year-old that is legitimate.

Compare it to the past Derby winners like Big Brown and Street Sense.

In 2008, Big Brown came into the Derby as a field-high 15.3.

2007's killer threesome of Street Sense (16.5 field-high), Curlin (15.8) and Hard Spun (13) all put on spectacular campaigns.

Quality Road's hoof issues are beginning to seem chronic. If they DO NOT derail him further, he is one to look out for. If they do, he is one we can put in the 'got away from us' category.

RESULTS: Keeneland Elkhorn

Friday's Fifth Third Elkhorn
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

1st- Spice Route- 16 (HIGHEST RATING)
2nd- Musketier- 10.3
3rd- Brass Hat- 12

Spice Route (16) ran like a horse with a 16 number, beating a solid field by 2-lengths. Muketier (10.3) ran big to complete the Roger Attfield exacta. The price on the winner($10.20) was absolutely lovely, given his edge on The System numbers. Spice Route is a very, very consistent horse who also drew field high numbers in his previous two starts.

Friday 4/24 @ Keeneland: The Fifth Third Elkhorn

Race 9 Grade II $200,000 1 1/2 miles turf
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Spice Route- 16
Champs Elysees- 14.5
Buddy's Humor- 14.5
Better Talk Now- 13.7
Quasicobra-12.5
Brass Hat- 12
Admiral's Cruise-12
Musketier- 10.3
(AE) Sudden War- 8.3
Transduction Gold- 8
(AE) Sir Dave- 8
Always First- 8
Sir Whimsey- 5.4
Embossed- 2.7

Roger Attfield's Spice Route (16) wins in the consistency category. Classy veterans like Champs Elysees (14.5) and Better Talk Now (13.7) have been very tough at times and both like to have something to run at. However, there isn't much speed here which means Buddy's Humor (14.5) can drop the anchor on them. Can he keep up for 12-furlongs? We'll see.

Edgar Prado and agent choose Attfield's Musketier (10.3) over field-high Spice Route (16). Interesting. Musketier has been consistent, but a level below these especially his stablemate.

Quasicobra (12.5) is on the rise. Expect the crafty Julien Leparoux to improvise on the expected slow pace.

RESULTS @ KEENELAND; Jenny Wiley & Lexington

Jenny Wiley older f/m turf
(Horse; Pre-race #)

1st- Forever Together- 19 (Highest #)
2nd- Rutherienne- 13.7 (3rd highest #)
3rd- Kiss With A Twist- 11.2 (4th Highest #)


Scratch: Visit (15.5) & Ballymore Lady (9.5)



Coolmore Lexington 3YO colts
(Horse; Pre-race #)

1st- Advice- 5.4
2nd- Conservative- 4.5
3rd- Square Eddie- 12 (Highest #)


Scratch: Hull (9)

Saturday 4/18 Keeneland: Coolmore Lexington

Race 9 $300,000 G II 1 1/8 miles
(Horse; Pre-race #)

Square Eddie- 12
Hull-9
Omniscient-8.2
Masala- 8
Jeranimo- 6.9
Parade Clown- 6.5
El Crespo- 6
Advice- 5.4
Pitched Perfectly- 4.9
Brave Victory- 4.7
Conservative- 4.5
His Greatness- 2.3

Field-high Square Eddie (12) looks to overcome a 3-month layoff in this mediocre rendition of the Coolmore Lexington. He has beaten better horses than these before. The Pamplemousse and Midshipman are the only horses in N.A to have beaten him. Both were serious Derby threats before their injuries.

The System's Early Kentucky Derby & Oaks Top 5

May 2 Derby

1. I Want Revenge
2. Quality Road
3. Friesan Fire
4. Pioneerof the Nile
5. Dunkirk

May 1 Oaks

1. Rachel Alexandra
2. Justwhistledixie
3. Stardom Bound
4. Dream Play
5. Just Jenda

Be on the look out for Complementary System Numbers for both the Derby & the Oaks, a few days prior to the first weekend in May.

Keeneland April 11 Jenny Wiley 1 1/16m

Race 8 Grade II 8.5 furlongs turf
(Horse;Pre-race #)

Forever Together- 19
Visit- 15.5
Backseat Rhythm- 14.6
Rutherienne- 13.7
Kiss With A Twist- 11.2
I Lost My Choo- 10
Lady Carlock- 9.8
Ballymore Lady- 9.5
Rustic Flame- 6.7

This race screams Keeneland Spring. Definitely a cool one. The entire field will pray for a soft turf course in order to beat the favorite Forever Together (19). The Breeders' Cup winner has not lost since September when she ran into Woodbine's yielding turf in the Canadian. Sheppard won Thursday's Madison with a similar layoff.

Visit (15.5) is still looking for her break-out stateside race. As long as Frankel keeps her on the grass, it will come.

Backseat Rhythm (14.6) makes her first start with the McLaughlin barn- they seem to get all the nice ones. She is a grade I winner but has never beaten a mare like Sheppard's.


SHE'S BACK: Forever Together looks to return
to her super 2008 form.

RESULTS: Keeneland: Vinery Madison (G1)

Grade I $300,000 7 furlongs older f&m
(Horse;Pre-race System #)

1st- Informed Decision (13.3) (2nd Highest #)
2nd- Ventura (16) (Highest #)
3rd- Bear Now (6.7)

The top two finishers were and are so much better than the rest of this group. They're numbers lived up to that in an exciting finish Thursday.

Ventura (16) ran a long trip, Gomez had her tucked behind then swung out 5-wide to take a brief about 100 yards from the wire. John Velazquez on Informed Decision (13.3) straight up out-rode Gomez here. Velazquez saved ground and she dug gamely as her eyes met Ventura's.

System exacta($14.20) players were rewarded when the 5/2 shot necked out the 2/5 fave.

Keeneland Friday April 10 Makers Mark Mile

Keeneland Race 9: Grade I $300,000 1 mile turf
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

Just As Well: 10.3
Thorn Song: 10.1
Twilight Meteor: 9.8
Mr. Sidney: 8.6
Passager: 8.5
Fluke: 8
House Of Silver: 6.3

Good luck in this crap-shoot. Just As Well (10.3) looks like he is satisfied with being close, but eeks out the top # over Thorn Song (10.1). The latter looks to regain his Autumn form, likes Keeneland. Twilight Meteor (9.8) beat this field's high number down in Gulfstream last time. Bobby Frankel's Fluke (8) has improved in two U.S starts.

Thursday April 9 Keeneland: Vinery Madison (G1) older f&m

Vinery Madison 7 furlongs $300,000
(Horse; Pre-Race System #)

Ventura- 16
Informed Decision- 13.3
Bsharpsonata- 8.6
Proud Heiress- 8.2
Bear Now- 6.7
Dubai Majesty- 6.5
Authenticat- 6.2

Ventura (16) returns to her best distance (3-for-3, including a BC win) as she looks for a repeat win in the Vinery Madison. She comes back to Keeneland and immediately works a 4-furlong bullet. Very tough.

Informed Decision (13.3) makes her first start since winning the Raven Run here in the Fall. Trainer Sheppard guaranteed to break out soon.

RESULTS Santa Anita Derby & Wood Memorial

Santa Anita Derby $750,000
(Horse;Pre-race System #)

1st- Pioneerof the Nile- 11.5 (HIGHEST rating)
2nd- Chocolate Candy- 9 (2nd Highest rating)
3rd- Mr. Hot Stuff- 6.5


SCRATCHED: The Pamplemousse- 10; Cape Truth- 7.5; Z Day- 4.9
-Scratch of The Pamplemousse moves Chocolate Candy into second highest spot.


Wood Memorial $750,000
(Horse; Pre-race System #)

1st- I Want Revenge- 13 (HIGHEST rating)
2nd- West Side Bernie- 10.3 (2nd Highest rating)
3rd- Just A Coincidence- 4.9

I Want Revenge (Highest 3-year-old # on Saturday) puts on the performance of the day.

Santa Anita Derby & Wood Memorial

Race 6 Santa Anita Derby $750,000 1 1/8 miles
(Horse; System #)

Pioneerof the Nile- 11.5
The Pamplemousse- 10
Chocolate Candy- 9
Gallant Son- 8.3
Take The Points- 8.3
Came Truth- 7.5
Feisty Suances- 7
Mr. Hot Stuff- 6.6
Unbridled Roman- 5.9
Z Day- 4.9


Race 9 Wood Memorial $750,000 1 1/8 miles
(Horse; System #)

I Want Revenge- 13
West Side Bernie- 10.3
Imperial Council- 9
Lime Rickey- 7.1
Atomic Rain- 5
Lord Justice- 5
Just A Coincidence- 4.9
Cellar Dweller- 2.7





Is I Want Revenge (13) for real or was his
Gotham just a freak performance? System #
says for real.