Top Kentucky Oaks Hopefuls

Fillies of 2009 As Ranked By The System

1. My Miss Aurelia
Unanimously #1.

2.Grace Hall
Not an ideal trip in the BC against #1. Have to imagine connections are looking forward to a 2012 rematch.

3. Disposable Pleasure
Probably the best Giacomo I've ever seen. Made an eye-Catching move in her stakes debut and seemed to naturally get herself involved. Tough and now battle-tested after a disastrous trip. Now needs litmus test from the 'Big Girls'.

4. Charm The Maker
Good for the connections for skipping BC after only beaten a length in Oak Leaf. Give daughter of Giant's Causeway the extra week and lighter spot and now she's a stakes winner. Some maturity issues to iron out but potential is there.

5. One Fire Baby
Swept Churchill Fall stakes, but she sits fourth here. Probably not getting enough respect from us, but I still see her having a shorter ceiling than the tops.

September 10: Super Derby

Louisiana Downs; Race 11- Super Derby

Prayer for Relief- 15
Meistersinger- 12.4
Malibu Glow- 12
Alternation- 12
Awesome Bet- 12
Populist Politics- 8
Trubs- 7.8
GW's d'Oro- 3
Mr. Woodrow- 2.5

Kentucky Derby Results

1st- Animal Kingdom- 5th highest System #
2nd- Nehro- 4th highest System #
3rd- Mucho Macho Man- 2nd highest System #
4th- Shackleford- 7th highest System #

*With the late defections of Toby's Corner and Uncle Mo the rankings were adjusted when the two horses mentioned were removed from the list.

Final Kentucky Derby System Rankings

1. Dialed In
2. Mucho Macho Man
3. Archarcharch
4. Toby's Corner
5. Nehro
6. Animal Kingdom
7. Midnight Interlude
8. Uncle Mo
9. Shackleford
10. Soldat
11. Twice the Appeal
12. Master of Hounds
13. Brilliant Speed
14. Pants On Fire
15. Santiva
16. Stay Thirsty
17. Comma to the Top
18. Twinspired
19. Decisive Moment
20. Watch Me Go

Kentucky Derby Top 20 (From the Top 20 Earners)

1. Dialed In
2. Mucho Macho Man
3. Nehro
4. Archarcharch
5. Toby's Corner
6. Midnight Interlude
7. Master Of Hounds
8. Uncle Mo
9. Shackleford
10. Twice The Appeal
11. Soldat
12. Santiva
13. Animal Kingdom
14. Brilliant Speed
15. Stay Thirsty
16. Comma to the Top
17. Decisive Moment
18. Pants On Fire
19. Twinspired
20. Watch Me Go

KENTUCKY DERBY RANKS; DOWN TO 25

1. Dialed In
2. Toby's Corner
3. Mucho Macho Man
4. Santiva
5. Uncle Mo
6. The Factor
7. Astrology
8. Rattlesnake Bridge
9. Soldat
10. Sway Away
11. Dance City
12. Animal Kingdom
13. Silver Medallion
14. Jaycito
15. Elite Alex
16. Stay Thirsty
17. Twice The Appeal
18. Shackleford
19. Cal Nation
20. Pants On Fire
21. Nehro
22. Anthony's Cross
23. Archarcharch
24. Prime Cut
25. Arthur's Tale

KY DERBY RANKINGS; APRIL 5

1. Uncle Mo
- All set for Saturday's G1 Wood.

2. Dialed In
- Maintains his #2 spot after FL Derby triumph.

3. The Factor (7)
- Moving on up after others disappoint in FL Derby.

4. To Honor And Serve (4)
- Still the most difficult horse to figure in top 10.

5. Santiva
- Ran great off bench in Louisiana, connections wait for Blue Grass..Ok...

6. Mucho Macho Man (8)
- We'll give him shoe excuse at the Fair Grounds. Onto the big one.

7. Soldat (3)
- Ran A LOT like a turf horse in the FL Derby. We'll see what the do, I'm off him for the KY Derby.

8. Astrology (10)
- Ran super in Sunland, let's see if connections try to squeeze one in before Derby.

9. Rattlesnake Bridge
- Doubtful for Wood Memorial. Arkansas? No word from barn.

10. Stay Thirsty (6)
- No way around that he looked poor in the FL Derby. Pletch says they'll run at Churchill if they're allowed.

11. Sway Away
- Ok, we'll toss Arkansas race based on what he's shown us prior. Must regroup in Ark Derby.

12. Cal Nation
- 'Be in it to win it' connections say Derby is not on their minds.

13. Anthony's Cross
- Big test in relatively weak SA Derby. We'll see...

14. Jaycito
- See ANTHONY'S CROSS

15. Brethren
- Maintains his position after an ideal week.

16. Toby's Corner
- Motion going to Wood.

17. Animal Kingdowm (19)
- Connections unsure of status. Didn't run super-fast and was on polytrack.

18. Dance City
- Impressive at GP. Arkansas?

19. Premiere Pegasus (20)
- Like to see him validate his San Felipe win.

20. Shackleford (new)
- Ran winning race in FL. Bet the house he'll run at Churchill if he gets in.

21. Crimson China
-Blue Grass next, dirt major concern.

22. Pants On Fire
- Stole LA Derby if you ask us.

23. Sour
- Co-headlines a weak Ill Derby.

24. Watch Me Go
- See #23 SOUR.

25. Elite Alex
- Could rebound in ARK Derby. Runnning out of chances.

26. Twice The Appeal
-A consistent type.

27. Archarcharch
- Onto Ark Derby.

28. Prime Cut
- Kind of impressive on LA Derby day.

29. Flashpoint
- Beat all the disappointing ones in FL Derby.

30. Norman Asborjnson
- Onto the Wood

KENTUCKY DERBY RANKINGS...AND THEN THERE WERE 30

1. Uncle Mo
2. Dialed In
3. Soldat
4. To Honor And Serve
5. Santiva
6. Stay Thirsty
7. The Factor
8. Mucho Macho Man
9. Rattlesnake Bridge
10. Astrology
11. Sway Away
12. Cal Nation
13. Anthony's Cross
14. Jaycito
15. Brethren
16. Toby's Corner
17. Machen
18. Dance City
19. Animal Kingdom
20. Premiere Pegasus
21. Wilburn
22. Crimson China
23. Pants On Fire
24. Sour
25. Watch Me Go
26. JP's Gusto
27. JJ's Lucky Train
28. Archarcharch
29. Prime Cut
30. Arch Traveler

KENTUCKY DERBY TRIAL RANKINGS

1. Uncle Mo
2. Dialed In(3)
3. Soldat(6)
4. To Honor And Serve(2)
5. Sway Away (7),(9)
6. Santiva
7. Stay Thirsty (9), (13)
8. Mucho Macho Man
9. Brethren (5),(4)
10. Machen (12)
11. Cal Nation
12. Bind (6), (5)
13. Wilkinson (14)
14. Rattlesnake Bridge (18)
15. Astrology
16. Rogue Romance
17. Anthony's Cross
18. Toby's Corner (11)
19. Fort Hughes (22)
20. Jaycito (38)
21. Left (25)
22. Sweet Ducky (20)
23. Wilburn (new)
24. Premiere Pegasus (28)
25. Sour (26), (19)
26. The Factor(24)
27. Alternation(32)
28. Free Entry (27)
29. Heron Lake (28),(21)
30. JP's Gusto(28)
31. Riveting Reason(30)
32. JJ's Lucky Train(33)
33. Archarcharch(35)
34. Travelin Man (29)(25)
35. Watch Me Go (new)
36. Nacho Business (new)
37. Arch Traveler (new)
38. Albergatti (28)
39. Majestic Harbor
40. Fusa Code(new)

1. Uncle Mo
2. Dialed In(3)
3. Soldat(6)
4. To Honor And Serve(2)
5. Brethren(4)
6. Santiva
7. Sway Away (9)
8. Mucho Macho Man
9. Stay Thirsty (13)
10. Machen (12)
11. Cal Nation
12. Bind (6), (5)
13. Toby's Corner (11)
14. Wilkinson
15. Astrology
16. Rogue Romance
17. Anthony's Cross
18. Rattlesnake Bridge
19. Fort Hughes (22)
20. Free Entry (27)
21. Heron Lake
22. Sweet Ducky (20)
23. The Factor(24)
24. Albergatti(26)
25. Left(new)
26. Sour (19)
27. Alternation(32)
28. Awesome Patriot (new)
29. Travelin Man (25)
30. JP's Gusto(28)
31. Riveting Reason(30)
32. JJ's Lucky Train(33)
33. Archarcharch(35)
34. Dance City(31)
35. Runflatout(40)
36. Nacho Business (new)
37. Arch Traveler (new)
38. Jaycito
39. Majestic Harbor
40. Fusa Code(new)

KY DERBY TRAIL RANKINGS (VERSION 5)

1. Uncle Mo
2. Dialed In(3)
3. Soldat(6)
4. To Honor And Serve(2)
5. Brethren(4)
6. Bind(5)
7. Santiva
8. Mucho Macho Man
9. Sway Away
10. Cal Nation
11. Toby's Corner
12. Machen
13. Stay Thirsty
14. Wilkinson
15. Astrology
16. Rogue Romance
17. Anthony's Cross
18. Rattlesnake Bridge
19. Fort Hughes (22)
20. Sweet Ducky
21. Heron Lake
22. Free Enty(27)
23. The Factor(24)
24. Albergatti(26)
25. Left(new)
26. Sour (19)
27. Alternation(32)
28. Crossbow(36)
29. Travelin Man (25)
30. JP's Gusto(28)
31. Riveting Reason(30)
32. JJ's Lucky Train(33)
33. Archarcharch(35)
34. Dance City(31)
35. Runflatout(40)
36. Nacho Business (new)
37. Arch Traveler (new)
38. Jaycito
39. Majestic Harbor
40. Fusa Code(new)

THREE- YEAR-OLD RANKINGS

KENTUCKY DERBY TRAIL RANKINGS (VERSION 4)

1. Uncle Mo
2. To Honor And Serve
3. Dialed In
4. Brethren
5. Bind
6. Soldat
7. Santiva
8. Mucho Macho Man
9. Sway Away
10. Cal Nation
11. Toby's Corner
12. Machen
13. Stay Thirsty
14. Wilkinson
15. Astrology
16. Rogue Romance
17. Anthony's Cross
18. Rattlesnake Bridge
19. Sour
20. Sweet Ducky
21. Heron Lake
22. Fort Hughes
23. Casper's Touch
24. The Factor
25. Travelin Man
26. Albergatti
27. Free Entry
28. JP's Gusto
29. Cool Blue Red Hot
30. Riveting Reason
31. Dance City
32. Alternation
33. JJ's Lucky Train
34. Shackleford
35. Archarcharch
36. Crossbow
37. Lumberjack Yard
38. Jaycito
39. Majestic Harbor
40. Runflatout

3-YEAR-OLD RANKINGS

KENTUCKY DERBY TRAIL RANKINGS (Version #3)
(Horses that have started at a route distance are eligible)


1. Uncle Mo
2. To Honor And Serve
3. Dialed In
4. Machen
5. Brethren
6. Cal Nation
7. Rogue Romance
8. Soldat
9. Santiva
10. Wilkinson
11. Toby's Corner
12. JP's Gusto
13. Astrology
14. Stay Thirsty
15. Sour
16. Clubhouse Ride
17. Anthony's Cross
18. Sweet Ducky
19. Mucho Macho Man
20. Riveting Reason
21. JJ's Lucky Train
22. Cool Blue Red Hot
23. Casper's Touch
24. Free Entry
25. Heron Lake
26. Comma to the Top
27. Caleb's Posse
28. Silver Medallion
29. Elite Alex
30. Majestic Harbor
31. Shackleford
32. Washington Rules
33. Lumberjack Yard
34. Private Prize
35. Pants On Fire


Sprinters Yet To Stretch Out (Ineligible)

Travelin Man
Runflatout
The Factor
Fort Hughes
Indian Winter
Crossbow
Sovereign Default
Manicero

THREE-YEAR-OLD RANKINGS

KENTUCKY DERBY TRAIL RANKINGS (Version #2)
(Horses that have started at a route distance are eligible)



1. Uncle Mo
2. To Honor And Serve
3. Dialed In
4. Machen
5. Boys of Tosconova
6. Tapizar
7. Brethren (8)

• Continues to put in impressive breezes and is the type that should stay around the top of this list until he tells you otherwise. The one to beat in the Sam Davis on Saturday.

8. Soldat (7)
9. Rogue Romance (10)

• Will battle for favoritism in the Risen Star if connections decide to go in that direction. Love the time McPeek has given him. Moved up as I was just not that impressed by Wilkinson's (10) Lecomte.

10. Wilkinson (9)
11. Santiva
12. Toby's Corner (21)

• His Whirlaway was impressive as he passed the entire field while making a long, yet eye-catching run. Plenty of room for growth and improvement as well.

13. Comma to the Top
14. JP's Gusto
15. Gourmet Dinner
16. Astrology (17)
17. Sour (12)
18. Clubhouse Ride
19. Sweet Ducky (16)
20. Stay Thirsty
21. Mucho Macho Man (18)
22. Monzon
23. JJ's Lucky Train (25)

• Ran super in the Whirlaway just couldnt last and lost to a better horse, again. Last time it was Monzon (22) and now Toby's Corner (17).

24. Cool Blue Red Hot (20)
25. Shackleford (new)

• Ran well for Romans on Saturday. Although he passed the 1 1/8 miles test, feel he will be limited when it comes to distance.

26. Caleb's Posse
27. Private Prize
28. Elite Alex (31)

• Moved up by others dropping down.

29. Pants On Fire (24)

30. Casper's Touch (new)

• Ran well enough in the Saturday 1x at Gulfstream to merit a spot on the board. Thought he encountered some trouble and is probably is better than his chart will show. One of many for McPeek on the list.
  

31. Washington Rules (29)

32. Lumberjack Yard

33. Rescind the Trade (23)





Sprinters Yet To Stretch Out (Ineligible)


Travelin Man
Heron Lake
Runflatout
The Factor
Heron Lake
Fort Hughes
Indian Winter
Crossbow
Sovereign Default
Cal Nation
Majestic Harbor
Manicero

3-YEAR-OLD RANKINGS

KENTUCKY DERBY TRAIL RANKINGS
(Horses that have started at a route distance are eligible)

1. Uncle Mo- Pletcher

• Most publicized of his crop, had his first breeze back on Sunday at Palm Meadows. Record is flawless and has been flawless visually. Has shown in every-which-way that he is a super horse. In tremendous hands.

2. To Honor And Serve- Mott

• Working steadily for HOF'er Mott. Connections have been quite clear the Fountain of Youth is next. That spot is turning into one heckuva race. Has all the potential in the world. Love the freshening they gave him and is absolutely main threat to the man at the top.

3. Dialed In- Zito

• Zito hasnt just been lucky to win a few triple crown races. He practically told the public he has a serious horse when he scratched out of the NW1x on Jan 21 in favor of the Holy Bull off of just one run. His horse backed him up. Scary performance with still plenty of ceiling to improve. Dangerous.

4. Machen- Howard

• Son of Distorted Humor schooled a solid MSW group at the Fair Grounds going 6f in his debut. He did it the right way that day winning from well off the pace by 5 lengths. Came back on short enough rest to win from off the pace again, by the same distance, in a two-turn NW1x score. No horse has ever won the KY Derby without a 2-year-old start.

5. Boys at Tosconova- Dutrow

• Strictly reading between the lines on this super-juvenile, I would have to regretfully say, he is off the trail. Top conditioner pulled the plug on Holy Bull and was quoted with a, "I don't have to make the Derby with this horse," plea. Dutrow knows what he's doing and knows there is a lot of money to be made. Kept on trail list of contenders out of respect, and slim hope he is still in the hat.

6. Tapizar- Asmussen

• You want to talk about turning the corner. Galloped at Churchill Downs with a "where did that come?", performance, then took his confident mindset to Santa Anita where he thrashed foes in first stakes attempt. No secret on how Santa Anita dirt has been playing.....zzzooooom. Something I hear they are looking into, this is an interesting one that I feel may be more of a player in the preps than in the big one itself.

7. Soldat- McLaughlin

• Can he handle dirt? Well, he can sure handle slop. Whether you chose to call him Barbaro or Big Brown after his NW1x romp on the Gulfstream slop is up to you. Either way, he was impressive. Connections have been outspoken on how they still are curious as to how he'll handle a dry slip. Efforts sprinting on dry track suggest he handled it just fine. On the day of his front-running victory, on the lead was the place to be.

8. Brethren- Pletcher

• Love the time Pletcher has given the little-brother of last year's Derby winner. A winner in both lifetime starts, Brethren is all set to go in the G III Sam Davis on Feb 12. Ceiling is high since he has yet to travel two-turns.

9. Wilkinson- Howard

• Winner of the Lecomte was unlucky to not win in his NW1x prior to that which was won by the erratic Justin Phillip. Game in the Lecomte, although not sure how good of a race that was. Will get litmus test in the Risen Star.

10. Rogue Romance- McPeek

• McPeek has given this one plenty of time after his solid effort in the Breeders' Cup. Solid grass form translated to Churchill's dirt in that contest as he was no match for Uncle Mo and Boys At Tosconova. Wait and see but must be watched. Will he end up back on the weeds?

11. Santiva- Keneally

• Love the time Keneally has given the KYJC winner. Has trained like clock-work since and is aimed for th FOY. Will make his second start for current conditioner as he has been passed around three times already.

12. Sour- Stall

• Son of Lemon Drop Kid was second to Machen in his debut and galloped out like, well, a Lemon Drop Kid going 6f. Came back to win like an absolute pro on Jan 31. Like rival Machen, Sour is lightly raced having just the two starts. Looked like sky's the limit in his maiden scamper.

13. Comma to the Top- Miller

• Cannot fault anything he's done as he has already totaled over $550k in earnings. That said he has never raced on dirt and I would not tout him while trying it. Think he'll end up on the grass and should make a nice stack of coin there. Paddy O'Prado ended up there, that said, he wasnt beaten far in the Derby.

14. JP's Gusto- Hoffmans

• Another precocious one. I feel that the classic's distances are a bit out of his reach. This time of year, you need to find out though. Think he's a player in the preps but a toss in the big one.

15. Gourmet Dinner- Standridge

• Tried very hard in the Holy Bull. Do not like that this horse has not had a break. His earnings are there, if the Derby is the connections' plan. Form would look a whole bunch cleaner if he stayed on the east coast and was given some time rather than make that Cash Call trip. All said after the fact, of course. Distance limitations.

16. Sweet Ducky- Breen

• Ran his guts out in the Holy Bull and gave you the feeling like he's the kind of horse with a huge heart that makes him competitive against horses that are still improving. Need to respect his grit in the Holy Bull, and could be useful if not rushed to the task. Gives me a Jackson Bend feeling.

17. Clubhouse Ride- Lewis

• Has raced in every month since his debut in April. Hate to see that as he will face fresh horses all spring and summer. Majority of connections in this country couldnt be paid to take a break at this time of year. I'll always go with the fresh horse. With all that said, can't hate on what he's done.

18. Mucho Macho Man- Ritvo

• To Honor And Serve (2x), Gourmet Dinner, Dialed In and Curlinello are the horses that have won the races this a-other-than has ran respectively in. If the timing is right, why not run him in a first-level allowance and run him back in a major prep. This horse may need a relief in competition.

19. Stay Thirsty- Pletcher

• Another one Pletch has given plenty of time. Super erractic when overwhelmed in the BC. Note that was his first time around two turns and he was running against Uncle Mo and Boys. Every reason to improve.

20. Cool Blue Red Hot- Penna

• Has done nothing wrong in his three lifetime starts. In his most recent, he dueled with Soldat, and although the winner went on to win by 10, I feel this one deserves another shot. Maybe he ran on talent and class and didnt handle the slop? Maybe, maybe not. We'll see him again, whether its another 1x or something like the Sam Davis.

21. Toby's Corner- Motion

• Has captured two straight at Laurel in impressive fashion. Has yet to travel two-turns as it seems he may be begging for it. In that case ceiling is high. Looking at it from the other side of things, what did he beat at Laurel? Motion doing the right thing and bringing him along slowly and conservatively. Whirlaway next.

22. Rescind The Trade- Violette

• Two-for-two Violette colt did it like he will appreciate more distance in his NW1x victory. Aimed for the Whirlaway after showing a few breezes at Palm Meadows. That could be taken either way, but certainly a short price in the Whirlaway after two professional victories.

23. Monzon- Corras

• Captured the Count Fleet on Jan 1 and will head to Tampa for a swing at graded money in the Sam Davis. Finshed well in the Count Fleet as everybody up front tailed off, besided for #23 JJ's Lucky Train. Interested to see how he handles tougher at Tampa.

24. Pants On Fire- Breen

• Ran a head-scratcher in the Count Fleet before getting nipped by Wilkinson in the Lecomte. Would bet he shows back up in the Risen Star, which will be a much deeper field. Between he and Wilkinson, they should have their hands full in the next step in the Big Easy.

25. JJ's Lucky Train- Anderson

• Ran super in the Count Fleet and is absolutely one to reckon with in the Whirlaway on Saturday. While everything else up front faded in the Jan 1 stakes, he hung gamely. Can he repeat the performance? Can he improve? We'll see.

26. Caleb's Posse- Von Hemel

• Not a big fan of the Smarty Jones winner, but he continues to prove me wrong. Do I think he beat much in that spot? No particularly. However, the Southwest is right around the corner and he'll have another shot to keep proving me and all other doubters wrong.

27. Private Prize- McPeek

• Good effort from the son of Pure Prize in the Tropical Park Derby. Thought he handled the distance while being beat by less than a length on the lead. Not over the moon on this one but his November handling of Wilkinson bodes well.

28. Justin Phillip- Asmussen

• Problematic Zayat colt, may benefit from castration, blinkers off, and a magic wand. Talent is there, mind seems to be somewhere else.

29. Washington Rules- McPeek

• Was quite impressive winning an off-the-turf MSW at Gulfstream. His effort against Pletcher shooter Stay Thirsty at Saratoga shouldnt go without mention as well. Turned off by the fact that McPeek had him entered on the grass after such a promising debut on dirt. Roman Ruler & Silver Charm may keep the sharp conditioner's mind on the dirt.

30. Shadow Warrior- Arnold

• Feel like this AP Indy colt ran well enough in his recent third-place finish in a Gulfstream NW1x. That heat was won by Black N Beauty, a pace presence in the Holy Bull. Could see him in the next NW1x going 1 1/8m. Think this lightly-raced one will relish the added distance.

31. Elite Alex- Ritchey

• Used his sophomore debut as a right tune-up for what seems to be the Southwest. Ritchey has had a nice one before, this one's papa.

32. Lumberjack Yard- Stidam

• Can't complain about his two starts, most recently a MSW score at the Fair Grounds. Flashed speed in his debut and got caught. Grew up a bit and stalked in a convincing graduating effort.

33. Preachintothedevil- Contessa

• New York bred was impressive against his restricted company on Jan 1 in a NYB stakes. Will run in the Whirlaway on Feb 5 and see what he can do.

Sprinters (not eligible): Travelin Man, The Factor, Heron Lake, Runflatout, Manicero, Indian Winter, Fort Hughes, Crossbow, Sovereign Default.